By Glenn Thrush, Jonathan Martin
The fourth and ultimate publication in POLITICO's Playbook 2012 sequence once more presents an remarkable minute-by-minute account of the race for the presidency. the tip of the road follows President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney as their crusade groups pass all-in to win within the serious ultimate weeks of the 2012 election.
From Mitt Romney's "47 percent" video to Clint Eastwood's speech to an empty chair, the 2012 presidential crusade didn't lack for memorable moments. after all of the road, POLITICO senior White residence reporter Glenn Thrush and senior political reporter Jonathan Martin chronicle each hairpin flip in a race that rejected the predictions of pundits and prognosticators.
While a few political observers thought of Barack Obama's reelection faraway from a definite factor, the president and his staff remained resolute of their trust that they might be triumphant. In Boston, Mitt Romney's advisers have been simply as convinced that their guy used to be headed for a smashing victory. in any case, just one of these perspectives will be confirmed by means of occasions. the end result of this election used to be by no means foreordained, even though, and might finally be made up our minds by means of applicants, 3 debates, and one thousand small yet serious strategic decisions.
With a watch towards writing a "first draft of history," Thrush and Martin document at the severe inner debates over advert technique that outlined the parameters of the autumn campaign--including a very important late-May selection by means of the Obama crusade which can have tipped the scales within the president's want. they supply a behind-the-scenes examine the candidates' debate instruction periods, and so they exhibit why Romney's crusade was once so convinced they have been going to win.
The motion climaxes on election evening, because the opposing camps huddle nervously of their resort suites to wait for the decision of the electorate. the top of the road finds for the 1st time what the Obama mind belief fairly considered the agonizingly lengthy look ahead to Romney's reliable concession--and what occurred after Obama positioned the phone to his ear and heard the phrases "Hello, Mr. President, it's Mitt Romney."
No possible have estimated the entire twists and turns of the 2012 election--and nobody was once greater outfitted to chronicle them than the POLITICO crew. the tip of the road is frontline crusade reporting at its most interesting, meticulously said and compulsively readable.
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Extra resources for The End of the Line: Romney vs. Obama: The 34 Days That Decided the Election (Politico Playbook 2012)
5 As mentioned earlier, the first question regarding gubernatorial stability pertains to the governorship of Chet Culver and why, unlike his three immediate predecessors who served and voluntarily retired after five, four, and two terms in office, his time in office ended after just one term. Thus, the initial focus of this part of the analysis will be explaining changes in gubernatorial approval for the years 1969–2010. This time period covers all of Governor Ray’s time in office (1969–1983), Governor Branstad (1983–1999), Governor Vilsack (1999–2007), and Governor Culver (2007–2011).
However, several economic indicators at the time of Culver’s reelection were actually positive in relative terms. 6 percentage points from Culver’s nomination in January of 2007 to the month before his reelection in October of 2010. 5 percent. By King and Cohen’s measure of “relative unemployment,” Iowa was doing quite well. At the time of Culver’s reelection vote, the state’s unemployment rate was still over 3 percentage points below the federal unemployment rate. Federal unemployment Federal unemployment(%) Correlations between approval ratings and unemployment rates by governor Approval Governor Culver (2007-2010) 1//2007 1/12/2007 2/9/2007 3/9/2007 4/13/2007 5/11/2007 5/14/2007 6/8/2007 7/13/2007 7/23/2007 8/10/2007 9/14/2007 10/12/2007 11/12/2007 11/9/2007 12/13/2007 1/11/2008 2/15/2008 2/17/2008 3/14/2008 4/11/2008 5/16/2008 8/15/2008 9/19/2008 9/19/2008 10/17/2008 11/21/2008 12/19/2008 1/20/2009 1//2009 2/20/2009 3/20/2009 3/30/2009 4/24/2009 4//2009 5/28/2009 6/12/2009 7/2/2009 7/17/2009 7/23/2009 8/26/2009 9/14/2009 9/27/2009 11//2009 2//2010 9//2010 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 The “Personal” Power of Iowa Governors Since 1969 Thus, the precise nature of the extent to which the economic downturn affected Culver is difficult to answer.
As I discuss in that chapter, monthly unemployment data prior to 1976 is unreliable. 2, Governor Ray is excluded due to a small sample (N N = 9). Ray’s record is included in more sophisticated analyses in Chapter 2. 05 level of significance; this indicates there is a less than 1 percent or 5 percent chance of the reported finding being the result of random error or simply due to chance. Beyle (1999: 222) notes that prior legislative experience did not show up as a significant advantage on his survey of American governors administered in 1994, but also that state legislative experience and statewide elective office (such as Secretary of State) are increasingly popular professions of governors (195).