The 2000 Presidential Election and the Foundations of Party by Richard Johnston

By Richard Johnston

Campaigns without warning appear to subject, as do questions on the electoral procedure within the aftermath of the 2000 presidential election. The authors study the U.S. electoral procedure as an built-in occasion spanning a whole yr, drawing upon the Annenberg 2000 Election research. the size in their fieldwork is such that they've been in a position to isolate key turning issues and that dynamics will be studied inside sure segments. Johnston, Hagen and Jamieson have additionally applied candidate appearances, information assurance, and crusade ads to supply this built-in account of a U.S. crusade. Richard Johnston is Professor and Head of Political technological know-how on the collage of British Columbia and an affiliate Member of Nuffield university, Oxford. he's co-author of Letting the folk make a decision (Stanford collage Press, 1992) and The problem of Direct Democracy (McGill-Queen's collage Press, 1996). Michael G. Hagen is affiliate learn Professor and Director of the guts for Public curiosity Polling on the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers college. he's co-author of Race and Inequality: A examine in American Values (Chatham condo, 1986) and a contributor to Reasoning and selection: Explorations in Political Psychology (Cambridge, 2003). Kathleen corridor Jamieson is Ware Professor of verbal exchange and Director of the Annenberg Public coverage heart on the collage of Pennsylvania. She is writer or co-author of twelve books on politics and media together with Packaging the Presidency (Oxford college Press, 1988).

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Example text

NES. 1 is the politically relevant one, as even analyses that identify a considerable Democratic advantage in underlying identifications all concede that Democratic identifiers are less mobilized than Republican ones (Campbell, 2000). The mobilization differential evidently extends to availability for telephone interviews. 9 7 8 9 Party identification is captured by the root question in the standard NES sequence, the query about whether the respondent is a Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent.

1, the only such variable is the 1996 vote in the respondent’s state cast as the difference from the national two-party division). 2. This logit is converted into a probability of choosing the indicated candidate by taking the antilog. 3. 1 (implicitly, the coefficient is multiplied by one, in contrast to step 1, in which the coefficient is implicitly multiplied by zero). 4. This logit is converted into a probability, again by taking its antilog. 5. 1. 1 should be taken as illustrative more than authoritative.

Gore’s share among African Americans was close to 90 percent (over 90 percent at the end). 6 The union/nonunion gap was about as wide – seventeen points – but favoring the Democrats. The gender gap was modest, with males seven points more favorable than females to Bush; of course, the “groups” on each side of the gender gap are enormous. At first look, the Democrats have a more sharply defined base than the Republicans. The two pro-Democratic groups are more distinct than the two pro-Republican groups.

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