Reassessing the Incumbency Effect by Jeffrey M. Stonecash

By Jeffrey M. Stonecash

Incumbents within the U.S. residence of Representatives have most likely elevated their vote probabilities in fresh many years, elevating questions about the efficacy of elections in making participants responsive. The proof, in spite of the fact that, exhibits there was no development within the electoral fortunes of incumbents within the final 50 years. simply Republicans have more advantageous their electoral fortunes due to realignment. This worthwhile e-book presents a really various interpretation of ways incumbents have fared in fresh a long time, and the translation is supported via non-technical facts research and presentation.

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That relationship or slope is positive. 32 with each successive year in office. If an incumbent began with 60 percent of the vote, on average, after 10 years, that incumbent 11 In this analysis the grouping is done by years of election, for all those incumbents first elected in 1900 and after. This means that some incumbents might be included in both sets of years. This is done because the argument about the incumbency effect has largely been about the changing resources available to incumbents in different eras.

Dem. Inc. Dem. Inc. 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 100 100 100 94 100 100 69 100 100 100 100 100 100 94 100 100 69 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 84 100 87 62 100 100 100 100 100 100 84 100 87 62 100 100 100 100 83 44 100 100 100 100 83 56 70 100 70 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 70 100 90 100 100 100 100 100 100 70 100 90 100 100 100 86 70 63 77 80 100 100 100 100 100 86 70 63 77 80 100 100 Number of Seats An empty cell means the seat was open, or no incumbent was present.

Com/dwnl. htm). measures (called a DW-NOMINATE score) of how conservative or liberal their voting records were. According to their analysis, a positive score means that members had conservative voting records, while a negative score means they had liberal voting records. The scores for all Democratic members are averaged, as are those for Republicans. 4 shows the average by party and how far apart the averages were for each year. From 1900 through the 1950s the differences had steadily declined, and by the 1960s, there was a time of sustained diminished differences between the parties.

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