Prediction Markets: Fundamentals, Designs, and Applications by Stefan Luckner, Jan Schröder, Christian Slamka, Bernd

By Stefan Luckner, Jan Schröder, Christian Slamka, Bernd Skiera, Martin Spann, Christof Weinhardt, Andreas Geyer-Schulz, Markus Franke

Exact predictions are crucial in lots of components equivalent to company selection making, climate forecasting and know-how forecasting. Prediction markets support to mixture details and achieve a greater figuring out of the longer term by means of leveraging the knowledge of the crowds. buying and selling costs in prediction markets therefore mirror the investors’ aggregated expectancies at the final result of doubtful destiny occasions and will be used to foretell the chance of those occasions. This e-book demonstrates that markets are actual predictors. effects from numerous empirical stories pronounced during this paintings exhibit the significance of designing such markets adequately so as to derive precious predictions. as a result, the findings are important for designing destiny prediction markets.

Show description

Read Online or Download Prediction Markets: Fundamentals, Designs, and Applications PDF

Similar management science books

Wissenschaftstheorie und wissenschaftliches Arbeiten: Eine Einführung für Wirtschaftswissenschaftler (BA KOMPAKT) (German Edition)

Wissenschaftstheorie und wissenschaftliches Arbeiten müssen nicht grau und staubtrocken sein! Von bisherigen Publikationen zu diesem Thema unterscheidet sich das vorliegende Buch v. a. darin, dass es die grundlegenden  Fragen der Wissenschaftstheorie auf konkrete und mitunter spannende Weise zugänglich macht.

Ferdinand Piëch: Der Auto-Macher

U2 (linke Klappe) Ferdinand Piëchs Lebensleistung für Volkswagen und die deutsche Automobilindustrie ist faszinierend. Auch jenseits von Audi TT und New Beetle verdienen seine Visionen, wegweisenden Produktideen und erfolgreichen Marktstrategien eine umfassende Würdigung. In der Bilanz stehen allerdings auch López-Affäre, Rolls-Royce-Deal und ein oft als erbarmungslos-machtbewußt beschriebener Führungsstil.

The holding company and corporate control

1. study topic and ambitions This learn makes a speciality of an financial establishment, the big commercial conserving corporation, which maintains to carry a favorite if no longer a strategic place within the source allocation procedure in lots of industrialised industry economies. robust multicompany combines just like the well-known eastern zaibatsu and the fewer ordinary yet both robust ecu commercial teams depend upon the establishment of the preserving corporation to tie their intermarket keep an eye on community jointly.

Cultural Heritage and Value Creation: Towards New Pathways

Knowledgeable by way of structures pondering, this ebook explores new views within which tradition and administration are harmoniously built-in and cultural history is interpreted either as a vital a part of the social and financial context and as an expression of neighborhood id. the combo of a multidisciplinary process, methodological rigor and connection with powerful empirical findings within the fertile box of research of UNESCO’s contribution suggest that the publication should be thought of a reference for the administration of cultural background.

Additional info for Prediction Markets: Fundamentals, Designs, and Applications

Example text

Subjects were presented a menu of choices which permits measurement of the degree of risk aversion. The probabilities were explained in terms of throws of a ten-sided dice. The amounts of money were fifty times the ones used by Holt and Laury (2002). The choices thus involved large cash prizes that were paid to the subjects. The payoffs for Option A are less variable than the payoffs of the risky Option B. When the probability of the high-payoff outcome increases enough subjects should cross over from Option A to Option B.

Moreover, the traders’ nationality is known since they provided information about their country of origin during the registration process. Traders originated from 72 different countries around the world. Countries with a substantial number of traders were Germany, Switzerland, USA, Belgium, Austria, UK, China, and Italy. The number of traders from other countries is too small to allow for a meaningful analysis of traders’ biases. Out of the eight aforementioned countries, the following analysis is restricted to countries which were taking part in the FIFA World Cup 2006.

Due to the low trading prices in the DV treatment there is no triangle in the price range between 80 and 100 currency units of Figure 5. This lack might also explain why the prediction accuracy of the treatment with the rank-order tournament is higher. 65314. Still, the correlation coefficient is higher in the RO treatment without any need for normalization. This result also makes the interpretation of trading prices as probabilities much easier in the RO treatment. 5. e. in particular the good performance of the rank-order tournament.

Download PDF sample

Rated 4.35 of 5 – based on 6 votes