By Stefan Luckner, Jan Schröder, Christian Slamka, Bernd Skiera, Martin Spann, Christof Weinhardt, Andreas Geyer-Schulz, Markus Franke
Exact predictions are crucial in lots of components equivalent to company selection making, climate forecasting and know-how forecasting. Prediction markets support to mixture details and achieve a greater figuring out of the longer term by means of leveraging the knowledge of the crowds. buying and selling costs in prediction markets therefore mirror the investors’ aggregated expectancies at the final result of doubtful destiny occasions and will be used to foretell the chance of those occasions. This e-book demonstrates that markets are actual predictors. effects from numerous empirical stories pronounced during this paintings exhibit the significance of designing such markets adequately so as to derive precious predictions. as a result, the findings are important for designing destiny prediction markets.
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Additional info for Prediction Markets: Fundamentals, Designs, and Applications
Subjects were presented a menu of choices which permits measurement of the degree of risk aversion. The probabilities were explained in terms of throws of a ten-sided dice. The amounts of money were fifty times the ones used by Holt and Laury (2002). The choices thus involved large cash prizes that were paid to the subjects. The payoffs for Option A are less variable than the payoffs of the risky Option B. When the probability of the high-payoff outcome increases enough subjects should cross over from Option A to Option B.
Moreover, the traders’ nationality is known since they provided information about their country of origin during the registration process. Traders originated from 72 different countries around the world. Countries with a substantial number of traders were Germany, Switzerland, USA, Belgium, Austria, UK, China, and Italy. The number of traders from other countries is too small to allow for a meaningful analysis of traders’ biases. Out of the eight aforementioned countries, the following analysis is restricted to countries which were taking part in the FIFA World Cup 2006.
Due to the low trading prices in the DV treatment there is no triangle in the price range between 80 and 100 currency units of Figure 5. This lack might also explain why the prediction accuracy of the treatment with the rank-order tournament is higher. 65314. Still, the correlation coefficient is higher in the RO treatment without any need for normalization. This result also makes the interpretation of trading prices as probabilities much easier in the RO treatment. 5. e. in particular the good performance of the rank-order tournament.