Mapping Disease Transmission Risk: Enriching Models Using by A. Townsend Peterson

By A. Townsend Peterson

A. Townsend Peterson, one of many pioneers of ecological area of interest modeling, offers a synthesis that illuminates new and greater infectious disorder mapping tools. His work―the fruits of twelve years of refinement―breaks new flooring via integrating biogeographic and ecological elements with spatial versions. aimed toward pro epidemiologists and public wellbeing and fitness specialists, this interdisciplinary e-book explains the conceptual and technical underpinnings of Peterson’s technique whereas at the same time describing the doubtless huge, immense advantages of his modeling method.

Peterson treats ailment transmission components for what they are―distributions of species. The e-book argues that advanced, fragmented, and hugely abnormal illness styles can in simple terms be understood whilst underlying environmental drivers are thought of. the result's a sublime modeling technique that demanding situations static spatial types and gives a framework for recasting ailment mapping. an individual operating within the region of sickness transmission, quite these making use of predictive maps, will locate Peterson’s booklet either inspiring and indispensable.

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Additional resources for Mapping Disease Transmission Risk: Enriching Models Using Biogeography and Ecology

Sample text

Although best guesses regarding occurrence points are plotted, the uncertainty around those points is seldom represented. The examples presented in Peterson et al. (2006a) and 38 Distributional Ecology Nakazawa et al. (2010) illustrate massive contrasts in the uncertainty associated with different occurrences of two diseases. One occurrence may be known and characterized with great precision, while another may have considerable uncertainty associated with it. The lesson to be learned is that disease occurrence data must be recorded in tandem with quantitative information on the degree of uncertainty in localization (Peterson 2008b), and this uncertainty should be expressed when disease occurrences are mapped.

These interactions can be highly complex, with multiple lineages of pathogens being maintained and transmitted by communities of hosts and vectors. These species-tospecies interactions are then potentially modified by factors such as immunity or health status, with important implications for disease transmission geography. Peterson et al. (2011) offered the Eltonian Noise Hypothesis as a means of reconciling the possibly important but nearly intractable effects of interspecific interactions on ecological niche models and the need for geographic views of species’ distributions.

Disease Peculiarities A large body of models and theory in epidemiology has developed into a detailed understanding of factors that should affect disease transmission. The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) framework offers a simple, nonspatial starting point for considering these additional important factors (Keeling and Rohani 2008). Susceptible individuals are infected by other individuals who already have the disease and both will either die or recover. Transmission can cease, owing to too few individuals being infective, or too many individuals having recovered (and who therefore become immune), which can produce either stable equilibria or density-­dependent oscillatory behavior.

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