Inquiries in the Economics of Aging (National Bureau of by David A. Wise

By David A. Wise

For over a decade, the nationwide Bureau of monetary learn has subsidized the Economics of getting older application, lower than the course of David A. clever. this system addresses concerns that impact the future health of people as they age and a society that's composed more and more of older people.Within the following 20 years, an unheard of percentage of american citizens might be over sixty-five. New learn within the economics of getting older is a vital component to figuring out what the longer term holds for this getting older inhabitants. Inquiries within the Economics of getting older offers either empirical papers that ponder questions which are primary to public coverage and extra theoretical contributions that lay new foundation for destiny study within the economics of aging.Inquiries within the Economics of getting older offers a well timed evaluation of a few of crucial questions dealing with researchers on getting older and descriptions new recommendations and versions that can support to reply to those questions. this crucial quantity might be of significant curiosity to experts and coverage makers because it paves the way in which for destiny research.

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Recall that the model assumes that, given expenditures in t - 1 and t - 2, expenditures in prior years add no information about expenditures in year t. But although it is likely that there is also some information contained in the pattern of expenditures in previous years, the model lag structure does imply that expenditure shocks will “last” for several years. Salaried Women Salaried Men 2 Z 2 5 g 10 10 09 06 09 08 07 07 06 05 04 06 J a 03 02 01 00 1 Year Actual ------. 3YearActual E $ - 1 Year Predicted 2 -__ 3 Year Predicted fly- :: //; 03 i 01 0 1 2 3 4 5 Common Log of Expenditure 0 6 1 2 3 4 5 Common Log of Expenditure Hourly Men Hourly Women 10 5 z 2 5 g 6 09 08 07 g Z m 06 05 04 + a 03 10 09 oa 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 02 01 001 0 I 0 1 2 3 4 5 Common Log of Expendlture 6 d9' , 1 2 3 4 5 Common Log of Expenditure 6 Fig.

But our experience has been that there is no appreciable difference in the overall results. Other Validation Comparisons Finally, we considered two additional comparisons to confirm that the persistence implications of the model were consistent with the data. Recall that the model assumes that, given expenditures in t - 1 and t - 2, expenditures in prior years add no information about expenditures in year t. But although it is likely that there is also some information contained in the pattern of expenditures in previous years, the model lag structure does imply that expenditure shocks will “last” for several years.

L. Second, we considered the future expenditures of persons with specific 1989 diagnoses that are typically associated with high expenditures. In particular, we were concerned that the expenditure decay in these cases be consistent with the implications of the model. We considered these 1989 diagnosis: acute myocardial infarction (AMI), cancer, mental health disorder (with inpatient care), and pregnancy. Only 45 percent of 1989 AM1 patients had expenditures greater than $1,000 one year later in 1990; only 34 percent had expenditures greater than $1,000 two years later in 1991.

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