By Paul Osborne
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S. 41 largest effects initially, and continues to have effects which decay exponentially over time. However, there will be misspecification bias if all the apparent correlation between world demand and domestic unemployment reflects only shared trends, or if (omitted) mutual feedback relations exist between each domestic economy and the world demand series. Freeman (1983) gave a careful and insightful review of the econometric literature relating to this problem. Before incorporating world demand in the analysis of unemployment, we will investigate whether it appears to be “causally” related to domestic unemployment rates.
O 4 d3 dl2 ma1 ma12 Constant lag 24 x2 (prob) resid. sum. sq. R2 (b) United States d0 dl d2 4 2 ma1 ma2 malo mall ma12 Constant lag 24 x 2 (prob) resid. sum. sq. 993 Note. Data are 444 monthly observations, January 1947-December 1983. Estimation used the SAS ARIMA package. T-statistics are in parentheses. (the second-order term is never significant). 7% of the original variance of the unemployment rate. The residuals are satisfactorily random by a chi-squared test. The residual sum of squares serves as a goodness-of-fit benchmark with which to compare the success of later models.
London: M. Robertson, pp. 224-259. , and James Alt (1981). ” Economic Journal 91 : 730-736. , and James Alt (1983). ” European Journal of Political Research 11: 113-124. Fair, Ray C. (1975). ” Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 397. Fair, Ray C. (1978). ” The Review of Economics and Statistics 60:159-172. , and Larry Lau (1968). ” Zeitschrift fur Nationalokonomie 28 12-355-380. , and Friedrich Schneider (1975). ” European Journal of Political Research 3:339-360. , and Friedrich Schneider (1978).