Beyond the Bubble: How to Keep the Real Estate Market in by Michael C. Thomsett

By Michael C. Thomsett

The nice housing growth that has fueled top rate costs and dealers' desires will be slowing down, yet regardless of dire predictions, the industry isn't more likely to implode spontaneously. With right making plans and a bit wisdom, householders, traders, and different stakeholders can keep away from catastrophe and actually revenue on their houses - despite what the marketplace does.

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Example text

How does this compare to recent population growth? Many people overlook the trend in new construction, and base their assessment of real estate solely on current sales prices of homes. But this is a current and historical view only. Perhaps more revealing are two related trends: the number of new units currently being built, and the number of planned units not yet started. If you limit your analysis of your local real estate market to existing units, you are not considering the impact of new housing that will be available within the next one to two years.

Since it is a peninsula, outward growth of the city itself is impos- The Regional Character of Real Estate 31 sible. However, growth around the base of the peninsula has been substantial and, as prices rise, commuting distances increase as well. With median housing prices in the city hovering at about $800,000, few people can afford even a modest 1,500-squarefoot house in San Francisco. One demographic consequence of this high-priced situation is a decline in the number of families with children.

You need to narrow down the actual region in terms of local economic forces, demographics, and the recent price history for that region—not the price trends in national ‘‘regions’’ found in overall statistical summaries. It is not enough to simply look at prices and price trends to decide whether homes are affordable. Chapter 3 examines the larger economic impacts on real estate bubbles. NOTES 1. Stephane Fitch, ‘‘The Last Speculators,’’ Forbes, March 27, 2006. 2. Maura Webber Sadovi, ‘‘Seattle Housing Market Remains Strong,’’ Real Estate Journal (Wall Street Journal), July 6, 2005.

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